Would also like to add that there was a significant knowledge gap in those early days in February, with data from China on both the scale of the outbreak, and circumstances, particularly difficult to interpret and extrapolate. Knowing what we know now, those early signs would have been enough, but at the time, it certainly seemed possible that it would be contained within China (very limited spread overseas that could be easily contained), or at least the mortality rate would be lower.
Would also like to add that there was a significant knowledge gap in those early days in February, with data from China on both the scale of the outbreak, and circumstances, particularly difficult to interpret and extrapolate. Knowing what we know now, those early signs would have been enough, but at the time, it certainly seemed possible that it would be contained within China (very limited spread overseas that could be easily contained), or at least the mortality rate would be lower.