“Or more simply, you start believing that the strong version of X is the lie you invented, but some weaker variant of X is actually true.”
That’s true, but in most cases it is in fact the case that some weaker variant is true, and this explains why you were able to convince people of the lie.
That said, this process is not in general a good way to discover the truth.
I would still expect a shift towards the group beliefs; e.g. if the actual value of some x is 5, and the enemy tribe believes it’s 0, and you strategically convince your tribe that it is 10… you may find yourself slowly updating towards 6, 7, or 8… even if you keep remembering that 10 was a lie.
Anyway, as long as we both agree that this is not a good way to discover truth, the specific details are less important.
“Or more simply, you start believing that the strong version of X is the lie you invented, but some weaker variant of X is actually true.”
That’s true, but in most cases it is in fact the case that some weaker variant is true, and this explains why you were able to convince people of the lie.
That said, this process is not in general a good way to discover the truth.
I would still expect a shift towards the group beliefs; e.g. if the actual value of some x is 5, and the enemy tribe believes it’s 0, and you strategically convince your tribe that it is 10… you may find yourself slowly updating towards 6, 7, or 8… even if you keep remembering that 10 was a lie.
Anyway, as long as we both agree that this is not a good way to discover truth, the specific details are less important.
I agree with that, and that is one reason why it is not a good method.