The basic question to ask is: did he live to 110 because of the drug, or was he going to be unusually long-lived anyway and happened to be enrolled in the trial?
If the drug was developed to combat some mechanism of senescence, one might reasonably entertain the possibility of a causal effect, but if it was for an unrelated matter, I don’t see a reason to expect it. Either way, one would want the scientists to do a lot more tests on that individual to discover the mechanisms of his longevity.
(“Personally, young man, I attribute my years to a diet of whisky, cigars, and strictly fried food.”)
That is one basic question to ask. The fact that it was not developed to combat a mechanism of senescence does not mean that it fails to inadverdently combat a mechanism of senescence. I agree that more study of the individual is in order. However, personally I’d probably still try the stuff in the interim- I wouldn’t want to lose years waiting on papers to be published, and i feel that the chance is worth it.
The previous sentence is really the point of the prompt- what level of evidence do you need to strike out on your own, against the frequentist stats saying it doesn’t happen for most people? What amount of upside?
The basic question to ask is: did he live to 110 because of the drug, or was he going to be unusually long-lived anyway and happened to be enrolled in the trial?
If the drug was developed to combat some mechanism of senescence, one might reasonably entertain the possibility of a causal effect, but if it was for an unrelated matter, I don’t see a reason to expect it. Either way, one would want the scientists to do a lot more tests on that individual to discover the mechanisms of his longevity.
(“Personally, young man, I attribute my years to a diet of whisky, cigars, and strictly fried food.”)
That is one basic question to ask. The fact that it was not developed to combat a mechanism of senescence does not mean that it fails to inadverdently combat a mechanism of senescence. I agree that more study of the individual is in order. However, personally I’d probably still try the stuff in the interim- I wouldn’t want to lose years waiting on papers to be published, and i feel that the chance is worth it.
The previous sentence is really the point of the prompt- what level of evidence do you need to strike out on your own, against the frequentist stats saying it doesn’t happen for most people? What amount of upside?