Eh, it’s sort of hard to talk about the overall future? That is roughly my confidence level of doom contingent on, like, Anthropic doing RSI starting in the next year. But that happening feels like something that is more like a 10-20% chance, and it’s harder to estimate what the doom probabilities will look like as we get further and further into the future (in part because something will mean we don’t get RSI soon, and it’s not obvious how that impacts further development).
Eh, it’s sort of hard to talk about the overall future? That is roughly my confidence level of doom contingent on, like, Anthropic doing RSI starting in the next year. But that happening feels like something that is more like a 10-20% chance, and it’s harder to estimate what the doom probabilities will look like as we get further and further into the future (in part because something will mean we don’t get RSI soon, and it’s not obvious how that impacts further development).