Unfortunately it is pretty challenging for these sorts of markets to work out because people who bet on doom can’t be paid out in situations where doom happens, and doomers who want to consume now and then pay back in worlds where they survive are probably bad counterparties who are not optimizing for their ability to pay back in worlds where they survive. (Eliezer’s bet with Bryan Caplan, for example, has Eliezer locking up money now (in order to be a good counterparty) which he then won’t be able to use, and if he wins the bet he also won’t be able to use that money. So it’s primarily symbolic.)
Unfortunately it is pretty challenging for these sorts of markets to work out because people who bet on doom can’t be paid out in situations where doom happens, and doomers who want to consume now and then pay back in worlds where they survive are probably bad counterparties who are not optimizing for their ability to pay back in worlds where they survive. (Eliezer’s bet with Bryan Caplan, for example, has Eliezer locking up money now (in order to be a good counterparty) which he then won’t be able to use, and if he wins the bet he also won’t be able to use that money. So it’s primarily symbolic.)