When Eliezer wrote HPMOR, it was not clear to him that things would go down in the 2020s. That’s what he said in I think this interview. Had Eliezer’s plan worked out to create a dozen new better Eliezers through his writing (which was the plan) this would have been the best action.
Also, I agree that you should not apply the reasoning suggested in the OP blindly. I think it is a useful heuristic.
When Eliezer wrote HPMOR, it was not clear to him that things would go down in the 2020s. That’s what he said in I think this interview. Had Eliezer’s plan worked out to create a dozen new better Eliezers through his writing (which was the plan) this would have been the best action.
Also, I agree that you should not apply the reasoning suggested in the OP blindly. I think it is a useful heuristic.