I’m pretty impressed by this post overall, not necessarily because of the object-level arguments (though those are good as well), but because I think it’s emblematic of a very good epistemic habit that is unfortunately rare. The debate between Hanson and Zvi over this, like habryka noted, is a excellent example of how to do good object-level debate that reveals details of shared models over text. I suspect that this is the best post to canonize to reward that, but I’m not convinced of this. On the meta-level, the one major improvement/further work I’d like to see is a (ideally adversarial) summary, authored by Zvi (though again, ideally at least one pro-blackmailer), about any shared conclusions or model differences that lead to agreed upon results. If such a post existed, I would strongly recommend canonization of that post. As is, I think canonization would meet goal 1 very well, goal 3 acceptably well, and on a meta-level, would be orthogonal to goal 2.
In terms of actual content, it’s probably a fairly good sample of high quality rationalist persuasive writing, which is a good archetype to include in the collection. Beyond offering good arguments in good faith, it also offers concrete examples and models when needed, and portrays good habits such as noticing confusion. Obviously, not all of this genre can be collated, but given the other distinguishing qualities, I think this is as good a sample as any, and doesn’t unacceptably compromise goal 2.
I’m pretty impressed by this post overall, not necessarily because of the object-level arguments (though those are good as well), but because I think it’s emblematic of a very good epistemic habit that is unfortunately rare. The debate between Hanson and Zvi over this, like habryka noted, is a excellent example of how to do good object-level debate that reveals details of shared models over text. I suspect that this is the best post to canonize to reward that, but I’m not convinced of this. On the meta-level, the one major improvement/further work I’d like to see is a (ideally adversarial) summary, authored by Zvi (though again, ideally at least one pro-blackmailer), about any shared conclusions or model differences that lead to agreed upon results. If such a post existed, I would strongly recommend canonization of that post. As is, I think canonization would meet goal 1 very well, goal 3 acceptably well, and on a meta-level, would be orthogonal to goal 2.
In terms of actual content, it’s probably a fairly good sample of high quality rationalist persuasive writing, which is a good archetype to include in the collection. Beyond offering good arguments in good faith, it also offers concrete examples and models when needed, and portrays good habits such as noticing confusion. Obviously, not all of this genre can be collated, but given the other distinguishing qualities, I think this is as good a sample as any, and doesn’t unacceptably compromise goal 2.
I’d strongly support upvoting this post.