part of this will be to make at least a nominal trade in every market I would want to be updated on
I don’t want to get updates on this so I’m sitting it out
For the future, you can actually follow/unfollow markets on Manifold independently of whether you’ve bet on them: they’ve moved this button around but it’s currently on the ”...” (“Market details”) popup (which is found in the upper-right corner of a market’s main pane).
I bought M270 of NO, taking out a resting buy order at 71%, causing me to note that you can sometimes get a better price buying in multiple steps where that shouldn’t be true. Weird.
According to the trade log at https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/41-will-an-image-model-win-scott-al, it looks like you bought 230 of NO (75%->70%), then a bot user responded in under a second by buying YES back up to 72%, and then you bought your final 40 of NO at the new price. There are several bots which appear to be watching and counteracting large swings, so I sometimes purposefully purchase in two stages like this to take advantage of exactly this effect. (Though I don’t know the bots’ overall strategies, and some appear to sometimes place immediate bets in the same direction as a large swing instead.)
For the future, you can actually follow/unfollow markets on Manifold independently of whether you’ve bet on them: they’ve moved this button around but it’s currently on the ”...” (“Market details”) popup (which is found in the upper-right corner of a market’s main pane).
According to the trade log at https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/41-will-an-image-model-win-scott-al, it looks like you bought 230 of NO (75%->70%), then a bot user responded in under a second by buying YES back up to 72%, and then you bought your final 40 of NO at the new price. There are several bots which appear to be watching and counteracting large swings, so I sometimes purposefully purchase in two stages like this to take advantage of exactly this effect. (Though I don’t know the bots’ overall strategies, and some appear to sometimes place immediate bets in the same direction as a large swing instead.)