In many cases, the root cause for low expectancy is that you personally do not have experience, knowledge, or resources. Expectancy should be low rationally. While the original post does prescribe learning/process goals, this is framed as a means to the end of increasing self-confidence.
Yep.
The formula in that article contains “expectation × value”. Perhaps it would be more pedantic to rewrite it as a sum “∑(expectation × value)” for various values one could derive, if they have different probabilities.
For example:
10% chance that my startup will succeed; plus
80% chance that I will learn useful things that will (a) increase the probability of my next startup succeeding, or (b) improve my position at a job interview, if I give up on startups; plus
99% chance of a cool story ;)
For less dramatic purposes, I think this makes a lot of sense when the person is a beginner, because the probability of success is low, but learning is almost guaranteed.
Yep.
The formula in that article contains “expectation × value”. Perhaps it would be more pedantic to rewrite it as a sum “∑(expectation × value)” for various values one could derive, if they have different probabilities.
For example:
10% chance that my startup will succeed; plus
80% chance that I will learn useful things that will (a) increase the probability of my next startup succeeding, or (b) improve my position at a job interview, if I give up on startups; plus
99% chance of a cool story ;)
For less dramatic purposes, I think this makes a lot of sense when the person is a beginner, because the probability of success is low, but learning is almost guaranteed.