I’m going to be running a series of Rationality & AI seminars with Alex Flint in the Autumn, where we’ll introduce aspiring rationalists to new concepts in both fields; standard cognitive biases, a bit of Bayesianism, some of the basic problems with both AI and Friendliness. As such, this could be a very helpful thread.
We were thinking of introducing Overconfidence Bias; ask people to give 90% confidence intervals, and then reveal (surprise surprise!) that they’re wrong half the time.
I’m going to be running a series of Rationality & AI seminars with Alex Flint in the Autumn, where we’ll introduce aspiring rationalists to new concepts in both fields; standard cognitive biases, a bit of Bayesianism, some of the basic problems with both AI and Friendliness. As such, this could be a very helpful thread.
We were thinking of introducing Overconfidence Bias; ask people to give 90% confidence intervals, and then reveal (surprise surprise!) that they’re wrong half the time.
Since it seemed like this could be helpful, I expanded this into a top-level post.
That 90% confidence interval thing sounds like one hell of a dirty trick. A good one, though.