Who would you consider an “expert” qualifying as an authority on this issue? Experts on classical narrow AI won’t have any relevant expertise. Nor will experts on robotics, or experts on human cognitive science, or experts on evolution, or even experts on conventional probability theory and decision theory. I know of very few experts on the theory of recursively self-improving AGI, but as far as I can tell, most of them do take this threat seriously.
I was thinking of those working on machine intelligence. Researchers mostly think that there are risks. I think there are risks. However, I don’t think that it is very likely that engineers will need to make much use of provable stability to solve the problem. I also think there are probably lots of ways of going a little bit wrong—that do not rapidly result in a disaster.
Who would you consider an “expert” qualifying as an authority on this issue? Experts on classical narrow AI won’t have any relevant expertise. Nor will experts on robotics, or experts on human cognitive science, or experts on evolution, or even experts on conventional probability theory and decision theory. I know of very few experts on the theory of recursively self-improving AGI, but as far as I can tell, most of them do take this threat seriously.
I was thinking of those working on machine intelligence. Researchers mostly think that there are risks. I think there are risks. However, I don’t think that it is very likely that engineers will need to make much use of provable stability to solve the problem. I also think there are probably lots of ways of going a little bit wrong—that do not rapidly result in a disaster.