Bayes’s theorem follows almost immediately from the ordinary definition of conditional probability, which I think is itself so reassuringly intuitive that no one who accepts the use of probabilities would worry about it (except perhaps in the corner case where the denominator’s zero).
Bayes’s theorem follows almost immediately from the ordinary definition of conditional probability, which I think is itself so reassuringly intuitive that no one who accepts the use of probabilities would worry about it (except perhaps in the corner case where the denominator’s zero).