I don’t understand why you should pay the $100 in a counterfactual mugging. Before you are visited by Omega, you would give the same probabilities to Omega and Nomega existing so you don’t benefit from precommitting to pay the $100. However, when faced with Omega you’re probability estimate for its existence becomes 1 (and Nomegas becomes something lower than 1).
Now what you do seems to rely on the probability that you give to Omega visiting you again. If this was 0, surely you wouldn’t pay the $100 because its existence is irrelevant to future encounters if this is your only encounter.
If this was 1, it seems at a glance like you should. But I don’t understand in this case why you wouldn’t just keep your $100 and then afterwards self-modify to be the sort of being that would pay the $100 in the future and therefore end up an extra hundred on top.
I presume I’ve missed something there though. But once I understand that, I still don’t understand why you would give the $100 unless you assigned a greater than 10% probability to Omega returning in the future (even ignoring the none zero, but very low, chance of Nomega visiting).
I don’t understand why you should pay the $100 in a counterfactual mugging. Before you are visited by Omega, you would give the same probabilities to Omega and Nomega existing so you don’t benefit from precommitting to pay the $100. However, when faced with Omega you’re probability estimate for its existence becomes 1 (and Nomegas becomes something lower than 1).
Now what you do seems to rely on the probability that you give to Omega visiting you again. If this was 0, surely you wouldn’t pay the $100 because its existence is irrelevant to future encounters if this is your only encounter.
If this was 1, it seems at a glance like you should. But I don’t understand in this case why you wouldn’t just keep your $100 and then afterwards self-modify to be the sort of being that would pay the $100 in the future and therefore end up an extra hundred on top.
I presume I’ve missed something there though. But once I understand that, I still don’t understand why you would give the $100 unless you assigned a greater than 10% probability to Omega returning in the future (even ignoring the none zero, but very low, chance of Nomega visiting).
Is anyone able to explain what I’m missing?