Today—according to most estimates I have seen—we are probably at least a decade away from the problem—and maybe a lot more. Computing hardware looks as though it is unlikely to be cost-competitive with human brains for around that long. So, for the moment, most people are not too scared of incompetent designers. The reason is not because we currently know what we are doing (I would agree that we don’t) - but because it looks as though most of the action is still some distance off into the future.
All the more reason to be working on the problem now, while there’s still time. I don’t think the AGI problem is hardware-bound at this point, but it should be worth working on either way.
Today—according to most estimates I have seen—we are probably at least a decade away from the problem—and maybe a lot more. Computing hardware looks as though it is unlikely to be cost-competitive with human brains for around that long. So, for the moment, most people are not too scared of incompetent designers. The reason is not because we currently know what we are doing (I would agree that we don’t) - but because it looks as though most of the action is still some distance off into the future.
All the more reason to be working on the problem now, while there’s still time. I don’t think the AGI problem is hardware-bound at this point, but it should be worth working on either way.
Well, yes, of course. Creating our descendants is the most important thing in the world.