Sure. I was simplifying, and said as much. Tit-for-tat is an excellent strategy in Prisoner’s Dilemma (which is not the same game as nuclear war). But when both players use it, it leads to death spirals as soon as one side defects, even on accident, even due to faulty intelligence. Both players continue to defect thereafter.
But this is not the same game. We know that starting down path leads to Our destruction anyway, so why not gamble on a massive strike to disarm the Enemy so there’s a chance Our destruction isn’t total? Maybe We can get them all, or at least survive what is left.
If the Enemy knows that a tit-for-tat trade is on the table, They might take the deal if They feel it’s worth it, declining to retaliate further. (The kind of autocrat willing to pay the cost in their own army’s blood to invade a democratic neighbor might just take that deal from time to time.) If that’s unacceptable to Us, then We must not offer that deal in the first place.
Sure. I was simplifying, and said as much. Tit-for-tat is an excellent strategy in Prisoner’s Dilemma (which is not the same game as nuclear war). But when both players use it, it leads to death spirals as soon as one side defects, even on accident, even due to faulty intelligence. Both players continue to defect thereafter.
But this is not the same game. We know that starting down path leads to Our destruction anyway, so why not gamble on a massive strike to disarm the Enemy so there’s a chance Our destruction isn’t total? Maybe We can get them all, or at least survive what is left.
If the Enemy knows that a tit-for-tat trade is on the table, They might take the deal if They feel it’s worth it, declining to retaliate further. (The kind of autocrat willing to pay the cost in their own army’s blood to invade a democratic neighbor might just take that deal from time to time.) If that’s unacceptable to Us, then We must not offer that deal in the first place.