I recently looked more into the phrase “All models are wrong”, and found that it seems to be much more aligned with my thinking here than I expected.
From Wikipedia, discussing earlier, related work by the author (George Box)
2.3 Parsimony Since all models are wrong the scientist cannot obtain a “correct” one by excessive elaboration. On the contrary following William of Occamhe should seek an economical description of natural phenomena. Just as the ability to devise simple but evocative models is the signature of the great scientist so overelaboration and overparameterization is often the mark of mediocrity. 2.4 Worrying Selectively Since all models are wrong the scientist must be alert to what is importantly wrong. It is inappropriate to be concerned about mice when there are tigers abroad.
I recently looked more into the phrase “All models are wrong”, and found that it seems to be much more aligned with my thinking here than I expected.
From Wikipedia, discussing earlier, related work by the author (George Box)
2.3 Parsimony
Since all models are wrong the scientist cannot obtain a “correct” one by excessive elaboration. On the contrary following William of Occam he should seek an economical description of natural phenomena. Just as the ability to devise simple but evocative models is the signature of the great scientist so overelaboration and overparameterization is often the mark of mediocrity.
2.4 Worrying Selectively
Since all models are wrong the scientist must be alert to what is importantly wrong. It is inappropriate to be concerned about mice when there are tigers abroad.
(bolding added to refer to the correct section)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong