Random question, tangential to this post in particular (but not the series): should we expect genes to be doing something like geometric rationality in their propagation? When a new gene emerges and starts to spread, even if it greatly increases host fitness on average, its # of copies could easily drop to 0 by chance. So it “should want” to be cautious, like a kelly better, and maximize its growth geometrically rather than arithmetically.
Not sure quite how that logic should cash out though. For one, genes that make their hosts more cautious (reduce fitness variance) should be systematically advantaged by this effect, at least during their early growth phase. More speculatively, to take advantage of this effect optimally, genes should somehow suss out how large their population (# of copies) is and push their host to be risk-taking vs. cautious in a way that’s calibrated to that. Which is maybe biologically plausible?
I don’t actually know much about population genetics though, and would be curious to hear from anyone who does.
Random question, tangential to this post in particular (but not the series): should we expect genes to be doing something like geometric rationality in their propagation? When a new gene emerges and starts to spread, even if it greatly increases host fitness on average, its # of copies could easily drop to 0 by chance. So it “should want” to be cautious, like a kelly better, and maximize its growth geometrically rather than arithmetically.
Not sure quite how that logic should cash out though. For one, genes that make their hosts more cautious (reduce fitness variance) should be systematically advantaged by this effect, at least during their early growth phase. More speculatively, to take advantage of this effect optimally, genes should somehow suss out how large their population (# of copies) is and push their host to be risk-taking vs. cautious in a way that’s calibrated to that. Which is maybe biologically plausible?
I don’t actually know much about population genetics though, and would be curious to hear from anyone who does.