Would your forecasts for AI timelines shorten significantly?
Yes, by 10-20 years, in particular for the first human level AGI, which I currently forecast between 2045-2060.
Would your forecasts change for the probability of AI-caused global catastrophic / existential risks?
Not by much, I give a low estimate to an AI existential risk.
Would your focus of research or interests change at all?
Yes, in the same way that the classic computer vision field has been made pretty much obsolete by deep learning, apart for few pockets or for simple use cases.
Would it perhaps even change your perspective on life?
Yes, positively. We would get faster than expected to the commercialisation of AGI, shortening the gap to a post-scarcity society.
That said, I don’t believe to the scaling hypothesis. Even though NNs appear capable to simulate arbitrary complex behaviours, I think we will hit a wall of diminishing returns soon, making it impractical to proceed this way for the first AGI.
Would your forecasts for AI timelines shorten significantly?
Yes, by 10-20 years, in particular for the first human level AGI, which I currently forecast between 2045-2060.
Would your forecasts change for the probability of AI-caused global catastrophic / existential risks?
Not by much, I give a low estimate to an AI existential risk.
Would your focus of research or interests change at all?
Yes, in the same way that the classic computer vision field has been made pretty much obsolete by deep learning, apart for few pockets or for simple use cases.
Would it perhaps even change your perspective on life?
Yes, positively. We would get faster than expected to the commercialisation of AGI, shortening the gap to a post-scarcity society.
That said, I don’t believe to the scaling hypothesis. Even though NNs appear capable to simulate arbitrary complex behaviours, I think we will hit a wall of diminishing returns soon, making it impractical to proceed this way for the first AGI.