I’d say 75% confidence on July 2026, 90% confidence on December 2026. Most of the uncertainty is around the timelines on annoying finicky regulatory stuff, like zoning on our location and making sure we’re in full compliance with rules on final disposition of bodies.
Thanks. When would you give 25% by? Also, is it the same for dogs, or is that earlier due to less regulation? And what do you charge for dogs? Double also, would you take bets about the “90% on Dec 2026”?
I’d give over 25% that if someone who’s signed up with us told us now that they had a month to live, we’d be able to accelerate timelines enough to preserve them.
For dogs we’d just need enough notice to make sure our vet has availability and our chemicals are in stock. Cost varies depending on the size but I’d ballpark somewhere very roughly around $50k, obviously happy to talk more details about particular animals.
Sure, happy to bet; I’d want to operationalize carefully. There’s a few different questions here and I expect the timelines to vary a little. In particular, I expect that if we have a terminal customer we go out of our way to accelerate things—setting up for preservation in our lab instead of a nicer facility where people are happy to bring their families, for instance. I’m less certain than that about when we cut the ribbon on the final location, complete our self-imposed certification process, and so forth, just because there’s a lot more moving parts.
I’d say 75% confidence on July 2026, 90% confidence on December 2026. Most of the uncertainty is around the timelines on annoying finicky regulatory stuff, like zoning on our location and making sure we’re in full compliance with rules on final disposition of bodies.
Thanks. When would you give 25% by? Also, is it the same for dogs, or is that earlier due to less regulation? And what do you charge for dogs? Double also, would you take bets about the “90% on Dec 2026”?
I’d give over 25% that if someone who’s signed up with us told us now that they had a month to live, we’d be able to accelerate timelines enough to preserve them.
For dogs we’d just need enough notice to make sure our vet has availability and our chemicals are in stock. Cost varies depending on the size but I’d ballpark somewhere very roughly around $50k, obviously happy to talk more details about particular animals.
Sure, happy to bet; I’d want to operationalize carefully. There’s a few different questions here and I expect the timelines to vary a little. In particular, I expect that if we have a terminal customer we go out of our way to accelerate things—setting up for preservation in our lab instead of a nicer facility where people are happy to bring their families, for instance. I’m less certain than that about when we cut the ribbon on the final location, complete our self-imposed certification process, and so forth, just because there’s a lot more moving parts.