The “ten people on the inside” direct AIs to useful projects within their resource allocation. The AGIs themselves direct their own projects according to their propensities, which might be influenced by publicly available Internet text, possibly to a greater extent if it’s old enough to be part of pretraining datasets.
The amount of resources that AGIs direct on their own initiative might dwarf the amount of resources of the “ten people on the inside”, so the impact of openly published technical plans (that make sense on their own merits) might be significant. While AGIs could come up with any ideas independently on their own, path dependence of the acute risk period might still make their initial propensities to pay attention to particular plans matter.
The “ten people on the inside” direct AIs to useful projects within their resource allocation. The AGIs themselves direct their own projects according to their propensities, which might be influenced by publicly available Internet text, possibly to a greater extent if it’s old enough to be part of pretraining datasets.
The amount of resources that AGIs direct on their own initiative might dwarf the amount of resources of the “ten people on the inside”, so the impact of openly published technical plans (that make sense on their own merits) might be significant. While AGIs could come up with any ideas independently on their own, path dependence of the acute risk period might still make their initial propensities to pay attention to particular plans matter.