As someone who’s had a very nuanced view of abortion, as well as a recent EA convert who was thinking about writing about this, I’m glad you wrote this. It’s probably a better and more well-constructed post than what I would have been able to put together.
The argument in your post though, seems to assume that we have only two options, either to totally ban or not ban all abortion, when in fact, we can take this much more nuanced approach.
My own, pre-EA views are nuanced to the extent that I view personhood as something that goes from 0 before conception, to 1 at birth, and gradually increases in between the two. This satisfies certain facts of pregnancy, such as that twins can form after conception and we don’t consider each twin part of a single “person”, but rather two “persons”. Thus, I am inclined to think that personhood cannot begin at conception. On the other hand, infanticide arguments notwithstanding, it seems clear to me that a mature baby both one second before, and one second after it is born, is a person in the sense that it is a viable human being capable of feeling conscious experiences.
I’ve also considered the neuroscience research that suggests that fetuses in the womb as far back as 20 weeks in are capable of memorizing the music played to them. This along with the completion of the Thalamocortical connections at around 26 weeks, and evidence of sensory response to pain at 30 weeks, suggest to me that the fetus develops the ability to sense and feel well before birth.
All this together means that my nuanced view is that if we have to draw a line in the sand over when abortion should and shouldn’t be permissible, I would tentatively favour somewhere around 20 weeks, or the midpoint of pregnancy. I would also consider something along the lines of no restrictions in the first trimester, some restrictions in the second trimester, and a full ban in the third trimester, with exceptions for if the mother’s life is in danger (in which case we save the mother because the mother is likely more sentient).
Note that in practice the vast majority of abortions happen in the first trimester, and many doctors refuse to perform late-term abortions anyway, so these kinds of restrictions would not actually change significantly the number of abortions that occur.
That was my thinking before considering the EA considerations. However, when I give thought to the moral uncertainty and the future persons arguments, I find that I am less confident in my old ideas now, so thank you for this post.
Actually, I can imagine that a manner of integrating EA considerations into my old ideas would be to weigh the value of the fetus not only by its “personhood”, but also its “potential personhood given moral uncertainty”.and its expected QALYs. Though perhaps the QALYs argument dominates over everything else.
Regardless, I’m impressed that you were willing to handle such a controversial topic as this.
As someone who’s had a very nuanced view of abortion, as well as a recent EA convert who was thinking about writing about this, I’m glad you wrote this. It’s probably a better and more well-constructed post than what I would have been able to put together.
Thanks! It took a long time—and was quite stressful. I’m glad you liked it.
The argument in your post though, seems to assume that we have only two options, either to totally ban or not ban all abortion,
I actually deliberately avoided discussing legal issues (ban or not ban) because I felt the purely moral issues were complicated enough already.
Actually, I can imagine that a manner of integrating EA considerations into my old ideas would be to weigh the value of the fetus not only by its “personhood”, but also its “potential personhood given moral uncertainty”.and its expected QALYs.
Yeah, if you want to do both you need a joint probability distribution, which seemed a little in-depth for this (already very long!) post.
I had another thought as well. In your calculation, you only factor in the potential person’s QALYs. But if we’re really dealing with potential people here, what about the potential offspring or descendants of the potential person as well?
What I mean by this is, when you kill someone, generally speaking, aren’t you also killing all that person’s future possible descendants as well? If we care about future people as much as present people, don’t we have to account for the arbitrarily high number of possible descendants that anyone could theoretically have?
So, wouldn’t the actual number of QALYs be more like +/- Infinity, where the sign of the value is based on whether or not the average life has more net happiness than suffering, and as such, is considered worth living?
Thus, it seems like the question of abortion can be encompassed in the question of suicide, and whether or not to perpetuate or end life generally.
As someone who’s had a very nuanced view of abortion, as well as a recent EA convert who was thinking about writing about this, I’m glad you wrote this. It’s probably a better and more well-constructed post than what I would have been able to put together.
The argument in your post though, seems to assume that we have only two options, either to totally ban or not ban all abortion, when in fact, we can take this much more nuanced approach.
My own, pre-EA views are nuanced to the extent that I view personhood as something that goes from 0 before conception, to 1 at birth, and gradually increases in between the two. This satisfies certain facts of pregnancy, such as that twins can form after conception and we don’t consider each twin part of a single “person”, but rather two “persons”. Thus, I am inclined to think that personhood cannot begin at conception. On the other hand, infanticide arguments notwithstanding, it seems clear to me that a mature baby both one second before, and one second after it is born, is a person in the sense that it is a viable human being capable of feeling conscious experiences.
I’ve also considered the neuroscience research that suggests that fetuses in the womb as far back as 20 weeks in are capable of memorizing the music played to them. This along with the completion of the Thalamocortical connections at around 26 weeks, and evidence of sensory response to pain at 30 weeks, suggest to me that the fetus develops the ability to sense and feel well before birth.
All this together means that my nuanced view is that if we have to draw a line in the sand over when abortion should and shouldn’t be permissible, I would tentatively favour somewhere around 20 weeks, or the midpoint of pregnancy. I would also consider something along the lines of no restrictions in the first trimester, some restrictions in the second trimester, and a full ban in the third trimester, with exceptions for if the mother’s life is in danger (in which case we save the mother because the mother is likely more sentient).
Note that in practice the vast majority of abortions happen in the first trimester, and many doctors refuse to perform late-term abortions anyway, so these kinds of restrictions would not actually change significantly the number of abortions that occur.
That was my thinking before considering the EA considerations. However, when I give thought to the moral uncertainty and the future persons arguments, I find that I am less confident in my old ideas now, so thank you for this post.
Actually, I can imagine that a manner of integrating EA considerations into my old ideas would be to weigh the value of the fetus not only by its “personhood”, but also its “potential personhood given moral uncertainty”.and its expected QALYs. Though perhaps the QALYs argument dominates over everything else.
Regardless, I’m impressed that you were willing to handle such a controversial topic as this.
Thanks! It took a long time—and was quite stressful. I’m glad you liked it.
I actually deliberately avoided discussing legal issues (ban or not ban) because I felt the purely moral issues were complicated enough already.
Yeah, if you want to do both you need a joint probability distribution, which seemed a little in-depth for this (already very long!) post.
I had another thought as well. In your calculation, you only factor in the potential person’s QALYs. But if we’re really dealing with potential people here, what about the potential offspring or descendants of the potential person as well?
What I mean by this is, when you kill someone, generally speaking, aren’t you also killing all that person’s future possible descendants as well? If we care about future people as much as present people, don’t we have to account for the arbitrarily high number of possible descendants that anyone could theoretically have?
So, wouldn’t the actual number of QALYs be more like +/- Infinity, where the sign of the value is based on whether or not the average life has more net happiness than suffering, and as such, is considered worth living?
Thus, it seems like the question of abortion can be encompassed in the question of suicide, and whether or not to perpetuate or end life generally.