One way to look at this is to pick questions where you’re really sure that the two versions of the question should have different answers. For example, questions where the answer is a probability rather than a subjective value. One study some years ago asked some people for the probability that Assad’s regime would fall in the next 3 months, and others for the probability that Assad’s regime would fall in the next 6 months. As described in the book Superforecasting, non-superforecasters gave essentially identical answers to these two questions (40% and 41%, respectively). So it seems like they were making some sort of error by not taking into account the size of the duration. (Superforecasters gave different answers, 15% and 24%, which did take the duration into account pretty well.)
One way to look at this is to pick questions where you’re really sure that the two versions of the question should have different answers. For example, questions where the answer is a probability rather than a subjective value. One study some years ago asked some people for the probability that Assad’s regime would fall in the next 3 months, and others for the probability that Assad’s regime would fall in the next 6 months. As described in the book Superforecasting, non-superforecasters gave essentially identical answers to these two questions (40% and 41%, respectively). So it seems like they were making some sort of error by not taking into account the size of the duration. (Superforecasters gave different answers, 15% and 24%, which did take the duration into account pretty well.)