“Compose an ensemble of theories, and pick an action that will do well under every theory in the ensemble.” This action will probably seem to underperform in the short run, but it is much more likely to survive in the long run.
The problem with this strategy is that it may not only underperform in the short term, it may not survive in the short term. If you have competing strategies, the optimized-for-short-term ones might destroy you before you get to demonstrate your robustness.
Taleb believes that in order to thrive, collectives (e.g. societies) must encourage their members to take risks.
I am not sure there is much historical support for this idea.
Obviously we are talking about degrees of risk—both a completely stagnant and a wildly risky societies will fail. I don’t see a pronounced historic trend of iconoclast-friendly societies triumphing over conformist ones. Certainly, some risk-taking is needed, but “more” is not always the right answer.
The problem with this strategy is that it may not only underperform in the short term, it may not survive in the short term. If you have competing strategies, the optimized-for-short-term ones might destroy you before you get to demonstrate your robustness.
I am not sure there is much historical support for this idea.
Obviously we are talking about degrees of risk—both a completely stagnant and a wildly risky societies will fail. I don’t see a pronounced historic trend of iconoclast-friendly societies triumphing over conformist ones. Certainly, some risk-taking is needed, but “more” is not always the right answer.