Great post. Since I have had (a diluted form of) the position Taubes describes for a long time (since before I was exposed to OvercomingBias, much less LessWrong) I cannot speak too much about the influences from here but it is a useful exercise to to try to trace how I update my beliefs in practice.
Caveat: I know damn well that I suck at giving true reports on what really causes me to change my mind. Our self awareness isn’t particularly motivated to be honest about such things. Nevertheless I can give a best estimate on what influenced me.
If you’ve already thought about this, do you believe Taubes’ thesis, and how did you come to this conclusion?
Yes. From what I can tell I formed the belief based on exposure to various experts that appeared to be Correct Contrarians. As someone who has taken an interest in a whole range of topics regarding health I have been exposed to experts in all sorts of fields that overlap with nutrition. It is not hard to distinguish between experts that seek out research to form accurate opinions and ‘experts’ who specialise in presenting authoritative beliefs. It is also not hard (given the right skillset) to independently verify the positions of such experts on their core positions. Basically none of those individuals support the idea that fat is the big culprit or a worse health risk than carbohydrate.
If this is the first time you’ve ever heard of Taubes, how far have you shifted your probability for the Dietary Fat Hypothesis based on reading this post?
I know little about Taubes. I’ve seen him as a reference but most of my exposure has been to other authors.
What more research do you intend to do to decide whether or not to continue believing it?
Probably quite a lot. ie. I am currently studying pharmacology degree with the intent of doing research in loosely related areas. I will almost certainly learn more about that kind of nutrition so as to better understand my own specific topics of interest.
How much weight do you place on the fact that I believe Taubes?
A moderate amount. Your presentation is credible and any report from an evidently educated reader that demonstrates an interest in epistemic knowledge and an understanding of bias carries weight.
On the fact that Eliezer believes Taubes?
Hmm. Eliezer does seem to be good at identifying correct contrarians so his position on such topics carries some weight. What carries even more weight is when Robin and Eliezer both support the same position—they have sufficiently different influences that agreement counts for something. I don’t recall whether Robin has blogged about diet advice in particular but his writing on health topics in general give credence to this position either way.
How much did you update your beliefs based on what other commentors have said (assuming there have been any)?
To be honest probably not much. I participate in other forums with a much higher level of knowledge on this area. On health related topics where I have been disagreement with other commenters here I have updated far less than when I have disagreed on non-health topics.
Great post. Since I have had (a diluted form of) the position Taubes describes for a long time (since before I was exposed to OvercomingBias, much less LessWrong) I cannot speak too much about the influences from here but it is a useful exercise to to try to trace how I update my beliefs in practice.
Caveat: I know damn well that I suck at giving true reports on what really causes me to change my mind. Our self awareness isn’t particularly motivated to be honest about such things. Nevertheless I can give a best estimate on what influenced me.
Yes. From what I can tell I formed the belief based on exposure to various experts that appeared to be Correct Contrarians. As someone who has taken an interest in a whole range of topics regarding health I have been exposed to experts in all sorts of fields that overlap with nutrition. It is not hard to distinguish between experts that seek out research to form accurate opinions and ‘experts’ who specialise in presenting authoritative beliefs. It is also not hard (given the right skillset) to independently verify the positions of such experts on their core positions. Basically none of those individuals support the idea that fat is the big culprit or a worse health risk than carbohydrate.
I know little about Taubes. I’ve seen him as a reference but most of my exposure has been to other authors.
Probably quite a lot. ie. I am currently studying pharmacology degree with the intent of doing research in loosely related areas. I will almost certainly learn more about that kind of nutrition so as to better understand my own specific topics of interest.
A moderate amount. Your presentation is credible and any report from an evidently educated reader that demonstrates an interest in epistemic knowledge and an understanding of bias carries weight.
Hmm. Eliezer does seem to be good at identifying correct contrarians so his position on such topics carries some weight. What carries even more weight is when Robin and Eliezer both support the same position—they have sufficiently different influences that agreement counts for something. I don’t recall whether Robin has blogged about diet advice in particular but his writing on health topics in general give credence to this position either way.
To be honest probably not much. I participate in other forums with a much higher level of knowledge on this area. On health related topics where I have been disagreement with other commenters here I have updated far less than when I have disagreed on non-health topics.
Which forums?
ETA: You probably refer to Imminst.org, right?
Imminst is a good one. There are others that also have more knowledge but less callibration.