Greetings, Halifax rationalists! Once again we will be having a meetup at Coburg Social. The topic of discussion will be prediction markets. Potential lines of discussion include:
How well do prediction markets perform compared to expert forecasting? Or compared to other means of information aggregation?
To what extent do time and risk discounting distort market prices from the “true” probabilities?
Why prediction markets may only be needed in a society of irrational and/or dishonest agents. And whether allowing unregulated prediction markets is likely to be a net societal good.
Whether or not futarchy is a good form of government
Think the discussion is likely to be tediously predictable? Then you can bet on the associated prediction market! Note that insider trading is allowed. As per usual, we will be meeting at Coburg Social at 1 PM.
Meetup—Prediction Markets
Greetings, Halifax rationalists! Once again we will be having a meetup at Coburg Social. The topic of discussion will be prediction markets. Potential lines of discussion include:
How well do prediction markets perform compared to expert forecasting? Or compared to other means of information aggregation?
To what extent do time and risk discounting distort market prices from the “true” probabilities?
Why prediction markets may only be needed in a society of irrational and/or dishonest agents. And whether allowing unregulated prediction markets is likely to be a net societal good.
Whether or not futarchy is a good form of government
Think the discussion is likely to be tediously predictable? Then you can bet on the associated prediction market! Note that insider trading is allowed. As per usual, we will be meeting at Coburg Social at 1 PM.