> We massively scale production of chips and power
This will probably happen, actually the scale to which it’s happening would probably shock the author if we went back in time 9 months ago. Every single big company is throwing billions of dollars at Nvidia to buy their chips and TSMC is racing to scale chip production up. Many startups+other companies are trying to dethrone Nvidia as well.
> AGI inference costs drop below $25/hr (per human equivalent)
This probably will happen. It seems pretty obvious to me that inference costs fall off a cliff. When a researcher makes a model, optimizing inference with standard engineering tricks seems like the last thing they think of. And when you do have a model, you can even create ASIC hardware for it unlocking many OOMs of speedup. > We invent and scale cheap, quality robots
This is starting to happen.
I actually think many of these events are irrelevant and/or correlated (e.g. if we make an algorithm for AGI, it seems unlikely to me we also don’t make it learn faster than humans, and the latter doesn’t even matter much), but taking the calculation at face value, the probability should go up a lot
Looking back:
> We massively scale production of chips and power
This will probably happen, actually the scale to which it’s happening would probably shock the author if we went back in time 9 months ago. Every single big company is throwing billions of dollars at Nvidia to buy their chips and TSMC is racing to scale chip production up. Many startups+other companies are trying to dethrone Nvidia as well.
> AGI inference costs drop below $25/hr (per human equivalent)
This probably will happen. It seems pretty obvious to me that inference costs fall off a cliff. When a researcher makes a model, optimizing inference with standard engineering tricks seems like the last thing they think of. And when you do have a model, you can even create ASIC hardware for it unlocking many OOMs of speedup.
> We invent and scale cheap, quality robots
This is starting to happen.
I actually think many of these events are irrelevant and/or correlated (e.g. if we make an algorithm for AGI, it seems unlikely to me we also don’t make it learn faster than humans, and the latter doesn’t even matter much), but taking the calculation at face value, the probability should go up a lot
The author is not shocked yet. (But maybe I will be!)