Andy will donate $50 to a charity of Daniel’s choice now.
If, by January 2027, there is not a report from a reputable source confirming that at least three companies, that would previously have relied upon programmers, and meet a defined level of success, are being run without the need for human programmers, due to the independent capabilities of an AI developed by OpenAI or another AI organization, then Daniel will donate $100, adjusted for inflation as of June 2023, to a charity of Andy’s choice.
Terms
Reputable Source: For the purpose of this bet, reputable sources include MIT Technology Review, Nature News, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Wired, The Guardian, or TechCrunch, or similar publications of recognized journalistic professionalism. Personal blogs, social media sites, or tweets are excluded.
AI’s Capabilities: The AI must be capable of independently performing the full range of tasks typically carried out by a programmer, including but not limited to writing, debugging, maintaining code, and designing system architecture.
Equivalent Roles: Roles that involve tasks requiring comparable technical skills and knowledge to a programmer, such as maintaining codebases, approving code produced by AI, or prompting the AI with specific instructions about what code to write.
Level of Success: The companies must be generating a minimum annual revenue of $10 million (or likely generating this amount of revenue if it is not public knowledge).
Report: A single, substantive article or claim in one of the defined reputable sources that verifies the defined conditions.
AI Organization: An institution or entity recognized for conducting research in AI or developing AI technologies. This could include academic institutions, commercial entities, or government agencies.
I guess that there might be some disagreements in these terms, so I’d be curious to hear your suggested improvements.
Caveat: I don’t have much disposable money right now, so it’s not much money, but perhaps this is still interesting as a marker of our beliefs. Totally ok if it’s not enough money to be worth it to you.
Given your lack of disposable money I think this would be a bad deal for you, and as for me, it is sorta borderline (my credence that the bet will resolve in your favor is something like 40%?) but sure, let’s do it. As for what charity to donate to, how about Animal Welfare Fund | Effective Altruism Funds. Thanks for working out all these details!
Here are some grey area cases we should work out: --What if there is a human programmer managing the whole setup, but they are basically a formality? Like, the company does technically have programmers on staff but the programmers basically just form an interface between the company and ChatGPT and theoretically if the managers of the company were willing to spend a month learning how to talk to ChatGPT effectively they could fire the human programmers? --What if it’s clear that the reason you are winning the bet is that the government has stepped in to ban the relevant sorts of AI?
Sounds good, I’m happy with that arrangement once we get these details figured out.
Regarding the human programmer formality, it seems like business owners would have to be really incompetent for this to be a factor. Plenty of managers have coding experience. If the programmers aren’t doing anything useful then they will be let go or new companies will start that don’t have them. They are a huge expense. I’m inclined to not include this since it’s an ambiguity that seems implausible to me.
Regarding the potential ban by the government, I wasn’t really thinking of that as a possible option. What kind of ban do you have in mind? I imagine that regulation of AI is very likely by then, so if the automation of all programmers hasn’t happened by Jan 2027, it seems very easy to argue that it would have happened in the absence of the regulation.
Regarding these and a few of the other ambiguous things, one way we could do this is that you and I could just agree on it in Jan 2027. Otherwise, the bet resolves N/A and you don’t donate anything. This could make it an interesting Manifold question because it’s a bit adversarial. This way, we could also get rid of the requirement for it to be reported by a reputable source, which is going to be tricky to determine.
How about this: --Re the first grey area: We rule in your favor here. --Re the second grey area: You decide, in 2027, based on your own best judgment, whether or not it would have happened absent regulation. I can disagree with your judgment, but I still have to agree that you won the bet (if you rule in your favor).
Those sound good to me! I donated to your charity (the Animal Welfare Fund) to finalize it. Lmk if you want me to email you the receipt. Here’s the manifold market:
Bet
Andy will donate $50 to a charity of Daniel’s choice now.
If, by January 2027, there is not a report from a reputable source confirming that at least three companies, that would previously have relied upon programmers, and meet a defined level of success, are being run without the need for human programmers, due to the independent capabilities of an AI developed by OpenAI or another AI organization, then Daniel will donate $100, adjusted for inflation as of June 2023, to a charity of Andy’s choice.
Terms
Reputable Source: For the purpose of this bet, reputable sources include MIT Technology Review, Nature News, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Wired, The Guardian, or TechCrunch, or similar publications of recognized journalistic professionalism. Personal blogs, social media sites, or tweets are excluded.
AI’s Capabilities: The AI must be capable of independently performing the full range of tasks typically carried out by a programmer, including but not limited to writing, debugging, maintaining code, and designing system architecture.
Equivalent Roles: Roles that involve tasks requiring comparable technical skills and knowledge to a programmer, such as maintaining codebases, approving code produced by AI, or prompting the AI with specific instructions about what code to write.
Level of Success: The companies must be generating a minimum annual revenue of $10 million (or likely generating this amount of revenue if it is not public knowledge).
Report: A single, substantive article or claim in one of the defined reputable sources that verifies the defined conditions.
AI Organization: An institution or entity recognized for conducting research in AI or developing AI technologies. This could include academic institutions, commercial entities, or government agencies.
Regulatory Impact: In January 2027, Andy will use his best judgment to decide whether the conditions of the bet would have been met in the absence of any government regulation restricting or banning the types of AI that would have otherwise replaced programmers.
Understandable. How about this?
Bet
Andy will donate $50 to a charity of Daniel’s choice now.
If, by January 2027, there is not a report from a reputable source confirming that at least three companies, that would previously have relied upon programmers, and meet a defined level of success, are being run without the need for human programmers, due to the independent capabilities of an AI developed by OpenAI or another AI organization, then Daniel will donate $100, adjusted for inflation as of June 2023, to a charity of Andy’s choice.
Terms
Reputable Source: For the purpose of this bet, reputable sources include MIT Technology Review, Nature News, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Wired, The Guardian, or TechCrunch, or similar publications of recognized journalistic professionalism. Personal blogs, social media sites, or tweets are excluded.
AI’s Capabilities: The AI must be capable of independently performing the full range of tasks typically carried out by a programmer, including but not limited to writing, debugging, maintaining code, and designing system architecture.
Equivalent Roles: Roles that involve tasks requiring comparable technical skills and knowledge to a programmer, such as maintaining codebases, approving code produced by AI, or prompting the AI with specific instructions about what code to write.
Level of Success: The companies must be generating a minimum annual revenue of $10 million (or likely generating this amount of revenue if it is not public knowledge).
Report: A single, substantive article or claim in one of the defined reputable sources that verifies the defined conditions.
AI Organization: An institution or entity recognized for conducting research in AI or developing AI technologies. This could include academic institutions, commercial entities, or government agencies.
Inflation Adjustment: The donation will be an equivalent amount of money as $100 as of June 2023, adjusted for inflation based on https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm.
I guess that there might be some disagreements in these terms, so I’d be curious to hear your suggested improvements.
Caveat: I don’t have much disposable money right now, so it’s not much money, but perhaps this is still interesting as a marker of our beliefs. Totally ok if it’s not enough money to be worth it to you.
Given your lack of disposable money I think this would be a bad deal for you, and as for me, it is sorta borderline (my credence that the bet will resolve in your favor is something like 40%?) but sure, let’s do it. As for what charity to donate to, how about Animal Welfare Fund | Effective Altruism Funds. Thanks for working out all these details!
Here are some grey area cases we should work out:
--What if there is a human programmer managing the whole setup, but they are basically a formality? Like, the company does technically have programmers on staff but the programmers basically just form an interface between the company and ChatGPT and theoretically if the managers of the company were willing to spend a month learning how to talk to ChatGPT effectively they could fire the human programmers?
--What if it’s clear that the reason you are winning the bet is that the government has stepped in to ban the relevant sorts of AI?
Sounds good, I’m happy with that arrangement once we get these details figured out.
Regarding the human programmer formality, it seems like business owners would have to be really incompetent for this to be a factor. Plenty of managers have coding experience. If the programmers aren’t doing anything useful then they will be let go or new companies will start that don’t have them. They are a huge expense. I’m inclined to not include this since it’s an ambiguity that seems implausible to me.
Regarding the potential ban by the government, I wasn’t really thinking of that as a possible option. What kind of ban do you have in mind? I imagine that regulation of AI is very likely by then, so if the automation of all programmers hasn’t happened by Jan 2027, it seems very easy to argue that it would have happened in the absence of the regulation.
Regarding these and a few of the other ambiguous things, one way we could do this is that you and I could just agree on it in Jan 2027. Otherwise, the bet resolves N/A and you don’t donate anything. This could make it an interesting Manifold question because it’s a bit adversarial. This way, we could also get rid of the requirement for it to be reported by a reputable source, which is going to be tricky to determine.
How about this:
--Re the first grey area: We rule in your favor here.
--Re the second grey area: You decide, in 2027, based on your own best judgment, whether or not it would have happened absent regulation. I can disagree with your judgment, but I still have to agree that you won the bet (if you rule in your favor).
Those sound good to me! I donated to your charity (the Animal Welfare Fund) to finalize it. Lmk if you want me to email you the receipt. Here’s the manifold market:
Bet
Andy will donate $50 to a charity of Daniel’s choice now.
If, by January 2027, there is not a report from a reputable source confirming that at least three companies, that would previously have relied upon programmers, and meet a defined level of success, are being run without the need for human programmers, due to the independent capabilities of an AI developed by OpenAI or another AI organization, then Daniel will donate $100, adjusted for inflation as of June 2023, to a charity of Andy’s choice.
Terms
Reputable Source: For the purpose of this bet, reputable sources include MIT Technology Review, Nature News, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Wired, The Guardian, or TechCrunch, or similar publications of recognized journalistic professionalism. Personal blogs, social media sites, or tweets are excluded.
AI’s Capabilities: The AI must be capable of independently performing the full range of tasks typically carried out by a programmer, including but not limited to writing, debugging, maintaining code, and designing system architecture.
Equivalent Roles: Roles that involve tasks requiring comparable technical skills and knowledge to a programmer, such as maintaining codebases, approving code produced by AI, or prompting the AI with specific instructions about what code to write.
Level of Success: The companies must be generating a minimum annual revenue of $10 million (or likely generating this amount of revenue if it is not public knowledge).
Report: A single, substantive article or claim in one of the defined reputable sources that verifies the defined conditions.
AI Organization: An institution or entity recognized for conducting research in AI or developing AI technologies. This could include academic institutions, commercial entities, or government agencies.
Inflation Adjustment: The donation will be an equivalent amount of money as $100 as of June 2023, adjusted for inflation based on https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm.
Regulatory Impact: In January 2027, Andy will use his best judgment to decide whether the conditions of the bet would have been met in the absence of any government regulation restricting or banning the types of AI that would have otherwise replaced programmers.
Sounds good, thank you! Emailing the receipt would be nice.
Sounds good, can’t find your email address, DM’d you.