I like this conceptually—might be nicer to aggregate all the prediction markets into an average by default (to make for cleaner graphs), and only split them up as an option.
If memory serves, Nate Silver managed to dominate some news cycles with his predictive model that mostly just aggregated opinion polls
I suspect I could do something similar. Look forward to “This super sophisticated model that definitely isn’t just a weighted average of prediction markets predicated 49 out of 50 states!” coming soon to a mainstream newspaper near you
I like this conceptually—might be nicer to aggregate all the prediction markets into an average by default (to make for cleaner graphs), and only split them up as an option.
If memory serves, Nate Silver managed to dominate some news cycles with his predictive model that mostly just aggregated opinion polls
I suspect I could do something similar. Look forward to “This super sophisticated model that definitely isn’t just a weighted average of prediction markets predicated 49 out of 50 states!” coming soon to a mainstream newspaper near you