This is an orthogonal question. I agree that if we’re there now, my claim is much less true.
I’d place fairly little probability mass on this (<10%) and believe much of the rest of the community does as well, though I realize there is a subset of the LessWrong-adjacent community that does.
What makes you think that we’re not at year(TAI)-3 right now? I’ll agree that we might not be there yet, but you seem to be assuming that we can’t be.
This is an orthogonal question. I agree that if we’re there now, my claim is much less true.
I’d place fairly little probability mass on this (<10%) and believe much of the rest of the community does as well, though I realize there is a subset of the LessWrong-adjacent community that does.