“Vanishingly small” was a bit incendiary, and it will depend on the field. This is why theoretical physics, where (1) is common, seems so scary and ego-driven, it’s all about how smart you are relative to your peers.
But in general I think it’s correct to say that the odds your idea is so special really are low. The equal odds rule says that the average publication of any particular scientist does not have any statistically different chance of having more of an impact (i.e., more citations) than any other scientist’s average publication. Most papers are lost to the ether, and published papers are really just the tip of the iceburg of most ideas.
“Vanishingly small” was a bit incendiary, and it will depend on the field. This is why theoretical physics, where (1) is common, seems so scary and ego-driven, it’s all about how smart you are relative to your peers.
But in general I think it’s correct to say that the odds your idea is so special really are low. The equal odds rule says that the average publication of any particular scientist does not have any statistically different chance of having more of an impact (i.e., more citations) than any other scientist’s average publication. Most papers are lost to the ether, and published papers are really just the tip of the iceburg of most ideas.