Another explanation for logarithmic thinking is Laplace’s rule of succession.
If you have N exposures and have not yet had a bad outcome, the Laplacian estimate of a bad outcome from the next exposure goes as 1/N (the marginal cost under a logarithmic rule).
Applying this to “number of contacts” rather than “number of exposures” is admittedly more strained but I could still see it playing a part.
Another explanation for logarithmic thinking is Laplace’s rule of succession.
If you have N exposures and have not yet had a bad outcome, the Laplacian estimate of a bad outcome from the next exposure goes as 1/N (the marginal cost under a logarithmic rule).
Applying this to “number of contacts” rather than “number of exposures” is admittedly more strained but I could still see it playing a part.