Looking at the moving average of the Ofspev rating, it seems the helm slowly stopped providing a good allocation starting around 10,000 students. This opens the opportunity for a blackbox approach, where one could simply train a model to replicate the performance of the initial helm, without any gear-level understanding. This might prove useful if the gear-level understanding is really complicated, but this might also limit our result, especially if the original helm was good, but far from perfect.
Looking at the number of students each year, it indeed decreases in the last few decades, which must be a consequence of the fact that applications have declined precipitously.
The individual skills of students don’t seem to decrease over time, so, despite the uninterrupted whining of archmages in the newspapers, the lower Ofspev rating is not explained by the alleged “laziness” of this “spoiled generation”.
A few observations
Looking at the moving average of the Ofspev rating, it seems the helm slowly stopped providing a good allocation starting around 10,000 students. This opens the opportunity for a blackbox approach, where one could simply train a model to replicate the performance of the initial helm, without any gear-level understanding. This might prove useful if the gear-level understanding is really complicated, but this might also limit our result, especially if the original helm was good, but far from perfect.
Looking at the number of students each year, it indeed decreases in the last few decades, which must be a consequence of the fact that applications have declined precipitously.
The individual skills of students don’t seem to decrease over time, so, despite the uninterrupted whining of archmages in the newspapers, the lower Ofspev rating is not explained by the alleged “laziness” of this “spoiled generation”.
So, I did precisely that. I trained a classifier on the first 7500 students to mimic the behavior of the original helm.
My predictions:
Serpentyne: C,F,K
Dragonslayer: D,G,H,N,Q
Humblescrumble: E,I,L,M,P,R,T
Thought-Talon: A,B,J,O,S