I think the best name for the term is “paranoid theory”. That is, a theory that only a paranoid person could seriously believe. Perhaps “paranoid conspiracy theory” if the particular theory involves a conspiracy and you want to emphasize that fact.
It doesn’t give any specific criteria for determining whether a theory is a paranoid theory or not, other than having a trusted non-paranoid person (perhaps yourself) investigate it seriously and decide whether they believe it. I think that’s as it should be. There can be lots of heuristics, such as the one outlined in this post, which are often useful and worth knowing, but I doubt there’s any heuristic that is all three of: 100% accurate, usually applicable, and cheap to perform.
Incidentally, Penn & Teller have said something related about overkill in magic. Googling:
“Sometimes, magic is just someone spending more time on something than anyone else might reasonably expect.” — Teller
“The only secret of magic is that I’m willing to work harder on it than you think it’s worth.” — Penn Jillette
THE EFFECT: I cut a deck of cards a couple of times, and you glimpse flashes of several different cards. I turn the cards facedown and invite you to choose one, memorize it, and return it. Now I ask you to name your card. You say (for example), “The queen of hearts.” I take the deck in my mouth, bite down, and groan and wiggle to suggest that your card is going down my throat, through my intestines, into my bloodstream, and finally into my right foot. I lift that foot and invite you to pull off my shoe and look inside. You find the queen of hearts. You’re amazed. If you happen to pick up the deck later, you’ll find it’s missing the queen of hearts.
THE SECRET(S): First, the preparation: I slip a queen of hearts into my right shoe, an ace of spades into my left, and a three of clubs into my wallet. Then I manufacture an entire deck out of duplicates of those three cards. That takes 18 decks, which is costly and tedious (No. 2: More trouble than it’s worth).
When I cut the cards, I let you glimpse a few different faces. You conclude the deck contains 52 different cards (No. 1: Pattern recognition). You draw and think you’ve made a choice (No. 7: Choice is not freedom).
Now I wiggle the card to my shoe (No. 3: If you’re laughing …). When I lift whichever foot has your card, or invite you to take my wallet from my back pocket, I turn away (No. 4: Outside the frame) and swap the deck for a normal one from which I’ve removed all three possible selections (No. 5: Combine two tricks). Then I set the deck down to tempt you to examine it later and notice your card is missing (No. 6: The lie you tell yourself).
I think the best name for the term is “paranoid theory”. That is, a theory that only a paranoid person could seriously believe. Perhaps “paranoid conspiracy theory” if the particular theory involves a conspiracy and you want to emphasize that fact.
It doesn’t give any specific criteria for determining whether a theory is a paranoid theory or not, other than having a trusted non-paranoid person (perhaps yourself) investigate it seriously and decide whether they believe it. I think that’s as it should be. There can be lots of heuristics, such as the one outlined in this post, which are often useful and worth knowing, but I doubt there’s any heuristic that is all three of: 100% accurate, usually applicable, and cheap to perform.
Incidentally, Penn & Teller have said something related about overkill in magic. Googling:
A good example: