I think your original idea was tenable. LLMs have limited memory, so the waluigi hypothesis can’t keep dropping in probability forever, since evidence is lost. The probability only becomes small—but this means if you run for long enough you do in fact expect the transition.
I think your original idea was tenable. LLMs have limited memory, so the waluigi hypothesis can’t keep dropping in probability forever, since evidence is lost. The probability only becomes small—but this means if you run for long enough you do in fact expect the transition.