Though, notably, Metaculus lists Jan 2027 as a “community prediction” of “weakly general AI”. Sure, someone could argue that weakly general AI doesn’t imply human-level AGI soon after
it does imply that, but i’m somewhat loathe to mention this at all, because i think the predictive quality you get from one question to another varies astronomically, and this is not something the casual reader will be able to glean
it does imply that, but i’m somewhat loathe to mention this at all, because i think the predictive quality you get from one question to another varies astronomically, and this is not something the casual reader will be able to glean