I do not expect us to be all dead by 2028.
2028 outcomes I think likely:
A) LLMs hit some kind of wall (e.g. only so much text to train on), and we don’t get AGI.
B) We have, approximately, AGI, but we’re not dead yet. The world is really strange though.
Outcomes (b) either works out ok, or we died some time rather later than 2028.
FWIW, I don’t think we’re all going to be dead by 2028 either.
I bet we won’t all be dead by 2040 for that matter. But that’s kind of a silly bet because I have no skin in the game: no one can collect if I’m wrong!
I do not expect us to be all dead by 2028.
2028 outcomes I think likely:
A) LLMs hit some kind of wall (e.g. only so much text to train on), and we don’t get AGI.
B) We have, approximately, AGI, but we’re not dead yet. The world is really strange though.
Outcomes (b) either works out ok, or we died some time rather later than 2028.
FWIW, I don’t think we’re all going to be dead by 2028 either.
I bet we won’t all be dead by 2040 for that matter. But that’s kind of a silly bet because I have no skin in the game: no one can collect if I’m wrong!