This just changes the quantile you should use. I already tried to adjust for this in the ballpark number I gave — I in fact think existential doom is much more than 99 times worse than scaring people. Even if you disagree and say it’s not worth trying to avoid an outcome because it has only a 1% probability, you’d probably agree it’s worth it at 50%, and it seems to me the median timeline is still way past 2028.
This just changes the quantile you should use. I already tried to adjust for this in the ballpark number I gave — I in fact think existential doom is much more than 99 times worse than scaring people. Even if you disagree and say it’s not worth trying to avoid an outcome because it has only a 1% probability, you’d probably agree it’s worth it at 50%, and it seems to me the median timeline is still way past 2028.