I think few of us in the alignment community are actually in a position to change our minds about whether alignment is worth working on. With a p(doom) of ~35% I think it’s unlikely that arguments alone push me below the ~5% threshold where working on AI misuse, biosecurity, etc. become competitive with alignment. And there are people with p(doom) of >85%.
This makes little sense to me, since “what should I do” isn’t a function of p(doom). It’s a function of both p(doom) and your inclinations, opportunities, and comparative advantages. There should be many people for whom, rationally speaking, a difference between 35% and 34% should change their ideal behavior.
Thanks, I agree. I would still make the weaker claim that more than half the people in alignment are very unlikely to change their career prioritization from Street Epistemology-style conversations, and that in general the person with more information / prior exposure to the arguments will be less likely to change their mind.
This makes little sense to me, since “what should I do” isn’t a function of p(doom). It’s a function of both p(doom) and your inclinations, opportunities, and comparative advantages. There should be many people for whom, rationally speaking, a difference between 35% and 34% should change their ideal behavior.
Thanks, I agree. I would still make the weaker claim that more than half the people in alignment are very unlikely to change their career prioritization from Street Epistemology-style conversations, and that in general the person with more information / prior exposure to the arguments will be less likely to change their mind.