There two possible ways to try to rebut the DA which is using those who knows about DA as a reference class, but they still don’t work (copying my comment from similar thread about the Universe origin):
A. One possible counterargument here is following. Imagine that any being has rank X, proportional to its complexity (or year of birth). But there will be infinitely many beings which are 10X complex, 100X complex and so on. So any being with finite complexity is in the beginning of the complexity ladder. So any may be surprised if it is very early. So there is no surprise to be surprised.
But we are still should be in the middle of infinity, but our situation is not so—it looks like we have just enough complexity to start to understand the problem, which is still surprising.
B. Another similar rebuttal: imagine all being which are surprised by their position. The fact that we are in this set is resulted only from definition of the set, but not from any properties of the whole Universe. Example: All people who was born 1 January may be surpised that their birthday coincide with New Year, but it doesn’t provide them any information about length of the year.
But my birthday is randomly position inside the years (September) and in most testable cases mediocracy logic works as predicted.
“In most testable cases mediocracy logic works as predicted.”
Exactly, but it doesn’t need testing anyway, because we know that it is mathematically necessary. That is why I think the DA is true, and the fact that everyone tries to refute it just shows wishful thinking.
(And by the way, my birthday is in late June and would work well to predict the length of the year. And my current age is almost exactly half of the current average lifespan of a human.)
But QI favours the worlds there I am more able survive, so may be I will have some kinds of superpowers or will be uploaded. So I will probably able to create several friends, but not many, as it would change probability distribution in DA, and so makes this outcome less probable.
Another option is put me in the situation where my life or death is univocally connected with live of group of people (e.g. if we all in one submarine). In with case we will all survive.
There two possible ways to try to rebut the DA which is using those who knows about DA as a reference class, but they still don’t work (copying my comment from similar thread about the Universe origin):
A. One possible counterargument here is following. Imagine that any being has rank X, proportional to its complexity (or year of birth). But there will be infinitely many beings which are 10X complex, 100X complex and so on. So any being with finite complexity is in the beginning of the complexity ladder. So any may be surprised if it is very early. So there is no surprise to be surprised.
But we are still should be in the middle of infinity, but our situation is not so—it looks like we have just enough complexity to start to understand the problem, which is still surprising.
B. Another similar rebuttal: imagine all being which are surprised by their position. The fact that we are in this set is resulted only from definition of the set, but not from any properties of the whole Universe. Example: All people who was born 1 January may be surpised that their birthday coincide with New Year, but it doesn’t provide them any information about length of the year.
But my birthday is randomly position inside the years (September) and in most testable cases mediocracy logic works as predicted.
“In most testable cases mediocracy logic works as predicted.”
Exactly, but it doesn’t need testing anyway, because we know that it is mathematically necessary. That is why I think the DA is true, and the fact that everyone tries to refute it just shows wishful thinking.
(And by the way, my birthday is in late June and would work well to predict the length of the year. And my current age is almost exactly half of the current average lifespan of a human.)
I agree about wishful thinking.
Ok, but what if your were Omega, how you could try to escape from DA curse?
One way is to reset own clock, or to reduce number of people to 1, so DA will work, but willnot result in total extinction.
Another way is to hope that some another strange thing like quantum immortality will help “me” to survive.
Wouldn’t that mean surviving alone?
Looks like alone ((( not nice.
But QI favours the worlds there I am more able survive, so may be I will have some kinds of superpowers or will be uploaded. So I will probably able to create several friends, but not many, as it would change probability distribution in DA, and so makes this outcome less probable.
Another option is put me in the situation where my life or death is univocally connected with live of group of people (e.g. if we all in one submarine). In with case we will all survive.