The problem with the doomsday argument is that it is a correct assignment of probabilities only if you have the very small amount of information specified in the argument. More information can change your predictions—the prediction you would make if you had less information gets overridden by the prediction that uses all your information.
Let’s use the example of picking a random tree. Suppose you know about the existence of tree-diseases that make trees sick and more likely to die, and you know that some trees are sick and some are healthy. You pick a random tree and it is ten years old and sick. You now should update your prediction of the average tree age toward 10 years, but you cannot expect that you have picked a point near the middle of this tree’s life. Because you know it is sick, you can expect it to die sooner than that.
Well I don’t have any statistics on how long civilizations last. It’s true that DA is a very naive way of estimating, but I think at this time all we can make are very naive estimates.
I think that when I add other information, like my belief in x-risk, the estimates get even worse. It really does feel like our civilization is at it’s peak and it’s all downhill from here. Between how many dangerous technologies we invent, to how much finite resources we are using up, the estimates given by DA certainly feel plausible.
The problem with the doomsday argument is that it is a correct assignment of probabilities only if you have the very small amount of information specified in the argument. More information can change your predictions—the prediction you would make if you had less information gets overridden by the prediction that uses all your information.
Let’s use the example of picking a random tree. Suppose you know about the existence of tree-diseases that make trees sick and more likely to die, and you know that some trees are sick and some are healthy. You pick a random tree and it is ten years old and sick. You now should update your prediction of the average tree age toward 10 years, but you cannot expect that you have picked a point near the middle of this tree’s life. Because you know it is sick, you can expect it to die sooner than that.
Well I don’t have any statistics on how long civilizations last. It’s true that DA is a very naive way of estimating, but I think at this time all we can make are very naive estimates.
I think that when I add other information, like my belief in x-risk, the estimates get even worse. It really does feel like our civilization is at it’s peak and it’s all downhill from here. Between how many dangerous technologies we invent, to how much finite resources we are using up, the estimates given by DA certainly feel plausible.