When I was 10 years old, I estimated P(my birth religion’s god) at 1/10k. That number has actually gone down (to 1/billion), and it touched 0 at some point because I started believing it DIDN’T make sense to assign probabilities to “impossible” things. P(god) should be higher, as there is either a good or laws or physics. I don’t believe god has much insentive to simulate, or to do anything (intuitively god just does not make sense). So I’d say 1/1000
Psychic: 1/1k
Global warming: I don’t understand the subject AT ALL so I’m going to go with the average here (80%)
Pandemic: There is a chance the population will grow (shrinking the meaning of 1 billion) and engineered pandemic seems likely, so 40%
When I was 10 years old, I estimated P(my birth religion’s god) at 1/10k. That number has actually gone down (to 1/billion), and it touched 0 at some point because I started believing it DIDN’T make sense to assign probabilities to “impossible” things. P(god) should be higher, as there is either a good or laws or physics. I don’t believe god has much insentive to simulate, or to do anything (intuitively god just does not make sense). So I’d say 1/1000
Psychic: 1/1k
Global warming: I don’t understand the subject AT ALL so I’m going to go with the average here (80%)
Pandemic: There is a chance the population will grow (shrinking the meaning of 1 billion) and engineered pandemic seems likely, so 40%
Mars: 2050 is a bit soon, so 30%
AI: Seems VERY likely, 90%.