1. What is your probability that there is a god? (Svir creprag) 1/100. I could just be really wrong. It doesn’t say a god that cares about humans, which has a much lower probability. 2. What is your probability that psychic powers exist? (Bar va bar gubhfnaq) 1/10000 Goes against the spirit of the post but... 3. What is your probability that anthropogenic global warming will increase temperatures by at least 1C by 2050? (Avargl creprag) 80/100 4. What is your probability that a pandemic kills at least one billion people in a 5 year period by 2100? (Svsgrra creprag) 4/100 5. What is your probability that humans land on Mars by 2050? (Rvtugl creprag) 1/50 6. What is your probability that superintelligent AI (=AI better than almost every human at almost every cognitive task) exists by 2115? (Gjragl svir creprag) 7/10
1. What is your probability that there is a god? (Svir creprag)
1/100. I could just be really wrong. It doesn’t say a god that cares about humans, which has a much lower probability.
2. What is your probability that psychic powers exist? (Bar va bar gubhfnaq)
1/10000 Goes against the spirit of the post but...
3. What is your probability that anthropogenic global warming will increase temperatures by at least 1C by 2050? (Avargl creprag)
80/100
4. What is your probability that a pandemic kills at least one billion people in a 5 year period by 2100? (Svsgrra creprag)
4/100
5. What is your probability that humans land on Mars by 2050? (Rvtugl creprag)
1/50
6. What is your probability that superintelligent AI (=AI better than almost every human at almost every cognitive task) exists by 2115? (Gjragl svir creprag)
7/10