1. What is your probability that there is a god? 1/1000 (If god is defined as an omnipotent, omniscient creator of all that is.) 2. What is your probability that psychic powers exist? 1/1000 3. What is your probability that anthropogenic global warming will increase temperatures by at least 1C by 2050? 9⁄10 4. What is your probability that a pandemic kills at least one billion people in a 5 year period by 2100? 1⁄50 5. What is your probability that humans land on Mars by 2050? 6⁄10 6. What is your probability that superintelligent AI (=AI better than almost every human at almost every cognitive task) exists by 2115? (Gjragl svir creprag) 6⁄10
1. What is your probability that there is a god?
1/1000 (If god is defined as an omnipotent, omniscient creator of all that is.)
2. What is your probability that psychic powers exist?
1/1000
3. What is your probability that anthropogenic global warming will increase temperatures by at least 1C by 2050?
9⁄10
4. What is your probability that a pandemic kills at least one billion people in a 5 year period by 2100?
1⁄50
5. What is your probability that humans land on Mars by 2050?
6⁄10
6. What is your probability that superintelligent AI (=AI better than almost every human at almost every cognitive task) exists by 2115? (Gjragl svir creprag)
6⁄10