“The grim!” Professor Trelawney said in a quavering voice, as she peered into George Weasley’s teacup. “The grim! It is a sign of death! One whom you know, George—someone you know is to die! And soon—yes, it shall be quite soon, I think—unless of course it is later—”
It would have been a good deal scarier, thought Fred and George, if she hadn’t said the same thing to every single other student in their Divination class.
I’m having to update my probability that HPMOR!Trelawney is actually good at her job.
My estimate of Trelawney in Methods has, for quite some time, been that she may or may not be good at formal Divination, but that she is a terrible teacher and an excellent seer, and that Dumbledore keeps her around primarily for the latter reason.
If everyone in the class knows Hermione (which is likely for a loose definition of ‘knows’ since everyone has probably heard of her either through SPHEW or as General Sunshine, as her being called up at lunch to receive an award) then telling that to everyone in the class may not include even a single miss. Which makes Professor Trelawney very accurate indeed.
Not really. if she says the same thing each time it shouldn’t be surprising that a rare hit occurs. It seems heavily implied that Dumbledore keeps her around (both in canon and in HPMOR) because she occasionally emits a genuine prophecy.
Not really. if she says the same thing each time it shouldn’t be surprising that a rare hit occurs.
Ah, but consider how rarely students die at Hogwarts: we’re at a 50-year gap between Myrtle and Hermione. If Trelawney told every student this year that they were going to die, but not the other years, then actually she’s remarkably accurate.
Possibly. Since Fred and George thought it would have been a good deal scarier “if she hadn’t said the same thing to every single other student in their Divination class” rather than “if she hadn’t said the same thing every year/week/day,” its weakly implied that this is the first time she’s make this prediction.
edit: although “every single other student in their Divination class” is somewhat ambiguous and could mean that over the course of the semester she has made this prediction for everyone at different times.
edit: although “every single other student in their Divination class” is somewhat ambiguous and could mean that over the course of the semester she has made this prediction for everyone at different times.
Then again, after SPHEW, everyone in the school “knows” Hermione.
Chapter 79:
I’m having to update my probability that HPMOR!Trelawney is actually good at her job.
My estimate of Trelawney in Methods has, for quite some time, been that she may or may not be good at formal Divination, but that she is a terrible teacher and an excellent seer, and that Dumbledore keeps her around primarily for the latter reason.
If everyone in the class knows Hermione (which is likely for a loose definition of ‘knows’ since everyone has probably heard of her either through SPHEW or as General Sunshine, as her being called up at lunch to receive an award) then telling that to everyone in the class may not include even a single miss. Which makes Professor Trelawney very accurate indeed.
Not really. if she says the same thing each time it shouldn’t be surprising that a rare hit occurs. It seems heavily implied that Dumbledore keeps her around (both in canon and in HPMOR) because she occasionally emits a genuine prophecy.
Ah, but consider how rarely students die at Hogwarts: we’re at a 50-year gap between Myrtle and Hermione. If Trelawney told every student this year that they were going to die, but not the other years, then actually she’s remarkably accurate.
Sure, do we have any reason to think she’s only done it this year?
Possibly. Since Fred and George thought it would have been a good deal scarier “if she hadn’t said the same thing to every single other student in their Divination class” rather than “if she hadn’t said the same thing every year/week/day,” its weakly implied that this is the first time she’s make this prediction.
edit: although “every single other student in their Divination class” is somewhat ambiguous and could mean that over the course of the semester she has made this prediction for everyone at different times.
Then again, after SPHEW, everyone in the school “knows” Hermione.
In canon, at least, she did that sort of thing every year. That only means so much here, of course.