I agree with Luke’s comment; compared to my views in 2009, the issue now seems more complicated to me; my estimate of impact form donation re: AI risk is lower (though still high); and I would not say that a particular calculation is robust.
my estimate of impact form donation re: AI risk is lower (though still high)
Out of curiosity, what’s your current estimate? I recognize it’ll be rough, but even e.g. “more likely than not between $1 and $50 per life saved” would be interesting.
I agree with Luke’s comment; compared to my views in 2009, the issue now seems more complicated to me; my estimate of impact form donation re: AI risk is lower (though still high); and I would not say that a particular calculation is robust.
Out of curiosity, what’s your current estimate? I recognize it’ll be rough, but even e.g. “more likely than not between $1 and $50 per life saved” would be interesting.