So there is a fairly reliable way to fix the planning fallacy, if you’re doing something broadly similar to a reference class of previous projects. Just ask how long similar projects have taken in the past, without considering any of the special properties of this project. Better yet, ask an experienced outsider how long similar projects have taken.
Doesn’t this risk availability bias? Maybe adjusting for some special properties is actually necessary...
There’s also a case of hyperstition going on here, an overconfident person may actually be more motivated to try and complete the task!
Doesn’t this risk availability bias? Maybe adjusting for some special properties is actually necessary...
There’s also a case of hyperstition going on here, an overconfident person may actually be more motivated to try and complete the task!