Another example of this: the US political models did fantastic in predicting all sorts of outcomes on election day 2012, far exceeding all sorts of pundits or people adjusting the numbers based on gut feelings and assumptions, despite often being pretty simple or tantamount to poll averaging.
Another example of this: the US political models did fantastic in predicting all sorts of outcomes on election day 2012, far exceeding all sorts of pundits or people adjusting the numbers based on gut feelings and assumptions, despite often being pretty simple or tantamount to poll averaging.
http://www.gwern.net/2012%20election%20predictions
http://appliedrationality.org/2012/11/09/was-nate-silver-the-most-accurate-2012-election-pundit/