The post mentions the experts using the results of the SPR. What happens if you reverse it, and give the SPR the prediction of the expert?
That’s called a ‘bootstrapped’ SPR. It’s one way of building an SPR. And yes, in many cases the SPR ends up being reliably better than the expert judgments that were used to build it.
I was wondering more how much better it is than a normal SPR. Also, I wonder what weight it would give to the expert.
The post mentions the experts using the results of the SPR. What happens if you reverse it, and give the SPR the prediction of the expert?
That’s called a ‘bootstrapped’ SPR. It’s one way of building an SPR. And yes, in many cases the SPR ends up being reliably better than the expert judgments that were used to build it.
I was wondering more how much better it is than a normal SPR. Also, I wonder what weight it would give to the expert.