To think about it, the main critique i have for this article is:
Only lists cases where SPR ‘outperformed’ expertise. Of which in most we just loosely describe as ‘experts’ some people who had never did any proper training (with exercises and testing) to perform task in question.
Equates better correlation with “outperforms”. Not the same thing. The maximum correlation happens when you classify into those with less than average risk of recidivism and those with larger than average risk. Parole board is not even supposed to work like this AFAIK.
If some SPR can ‘outperform’ average HR expertise, it doesn’t mean SPR outperforms best expertise. Example where it matters: if you are a software start-up company founder, and if your expertise is average, your start-up will almost inevitably fail. Only small percentage successes, top 1% or less. You strive to maximize your chances at making into top 1%, not at making into top 50%.
What’s about ethical issues? Race correlates with criminality, for example.
edit: not fully sure at the moment when maximum correlation happens.
To think about it, the main critique i have for this article is:
Only lists cases where SPR ‘outperformed’ expertise. Of which in most we just loosely describe as ‘experts’ some people who had never did any proper training (with exercises and testing) to perform task in question.
Equates better correlation with “outperforms”. Not the same thing. The maximum correlation happens when you classify into those with less than average risk of recidivism and those with larger than average risk. Parole board is not even supposed to work like this AFAIK.
If some SPR can ‘outperform’ average HR expertise, it doesn’t mean SPR outperforms best expertise. Example where it matters: if you are a software start-up company founder, and if your expertise is average, your start-up will almost inevitably fail. Only small percentage successes, top 1% or less. You strive to maximize your chances at making into top 1%, not at making into top 50%.
What’s about ethical issues? Race correlates with criminality, for example.
edit: not fully sure at the moment when maximum correlation happens.