My final forecast was 25%, so I get the worst Brier Score of anyone. I also clearly failed to anticipate new variants. The fact that Omicron came so close to the end of 2021 doesn’t save my forecast from from the fact that it negligently ignored the possibility of variants.
And to be fair to everyone else, they probably didn’t have my specific operationalization in mind, which clearly could matter a lot to the resolution of the question, so I’ll let others judge their own forecasts.
My final forecast was 25%, so I get the worst Brier Score of anyone. I also clearly failed to anticipate new variants. The fact that Omicron came so close to the end of 2021 doesn’t save my forecast from from the fact that it negligently ignored the possibility of variants.
And to be fair to everyone else, they probably didn’t have my specific operationalization in mind, which clearly could matter a lot to the resolution of the question, so I’ll let others judge their own forecasts.